Transaction Center of Silicon Metal Weakens, Polysilicon Prices Hold Steady [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM December 8 News:

Silicon metal

price

in east China, oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt, and #421 silicon was at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt last Friday. The most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,805 yuan/mt. After the futures dropped, downstream users and traders' buying demand increased, but the spot silicon metal transaction center remained weak.

Production

The operating rates of silicon metal enterprises in the north and south regions diverged. Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises continued production cuts during the dry season, and the operating rate maintained a downward trend. Individual silicon enterprises in the north increased or resumed production, leading to an increase in the operating rate. Under these changes, silicon metal production in December is expected to be basically flat compared to November.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 558,000 mt on December 4, an increase of 8,000 mt WoW. This included 131,000 mt in ordinary social warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 427,000 mt in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot inventory portions), up 6,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.6-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 51.99 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. Currently, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong. GFEX added new delivery brands, downstream sentiment is slightly weaker, and prices are temporarily stable.

Production

Domestic production in December is expected to be 113,500 mt, and global polysilicon production is around 120,000 mt. Currently, compared to wafer demand, it still appears slightly surplus.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has shown some increase. Currently, inventory distribution among enterprises remains extremely uneven. Subsequent supply is still expected to exceed demand, and there is a possibility of inventory buildup.

Module

price

Last week, domestic module prices dropped slightly. Domestic distributed demand has basically dropped to a freezing point. Some enterprises that had not previously entered the bidding began to enter the market with price reductions for destocking. Additionally, top-tier enterprises also sold some slightly lower-power products at low prices, making market prices quite chaotic. For centralized projects, procurement for domestic installation projects basically ended starting December, with limited new demand. Prices are still supported by price limit requirements, and short-term stability is the main trend. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.664 yuan/W, 0.68 yuan/W, and 0.668 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.67 yuan/W and 0.69 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

In the first week of December, some domestic module enterprises slightly cut production. Module production in December is expected to decline again, and the domestic production schedule is projected to drop to around 36 GW.

Inventory

Weekly inventory remained largely unchanged. Domestic demand began to decline, and after supply-side adjustments matched the decrease, inventory levels fluctuated without a clear trend.

High-purity quartz sand

price

Current domestic prices are: inner-layer sand at 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand at 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices fell. Recent import sand negotiations have entered the second phase, currently in a stalemate.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises implemented significant production cuts, yet supply pressure remains high.

Inventory

At year-end, crucible enterprises purchased quartz sand based on rational wafer production schedules, leading to a slight increase in quartz sand inventory levels.

PV glass

price

3.2mm single-layer coating: Quotes for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass were 19-20.5 yuan/m², with stable prices.

3.2mm double-layer coating: Quotes for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass were 20-21.5 yuan/m², with stable prices.

2.0mm single-layer coating: Quotes for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass were 12-13 yuan/m². Starting in December, domestic glass enterprises began offering discounts to reduce high inventory, leading to price declines. Subsequent production cuts may be implemented to alleviate the oversupply situation.

2.0mm double-layer coating: Quotes for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass were 13-14 yuan/m², with transaction prices falling.

Production

New domestic capacity additions from earlier periods began contributing to output, and with one extra production day in December, overall production is expected to increase.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels remained high, with overall days of inventories exceeding 32 days across second-tier enterprises.